Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxes and its Surrounding

Abstract

The Hazara Kashmir syntaxes (HKS) is located in the western Himalayas in Pakistan that marks the easternmost proximity of the western Himalayan mountain system and is regarded as one of the most tectonically active domains of the world. In this study, the seismic ground motion parameters have been calculated for Hazara Kashmir syntaxes and its surrounding. The seismic hazard parameters were computed using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and the standard Cornell–McGuire method at each grid spacing of 0.1o × 0.1o. This study encompasses the seismic records of the historical and instrumental database to establish the recurrence relationship based on an appropriate ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). Recently developed, the Boore and Atkinson (2008) next-generation attenuation (NGA) and Akkar and Bommer (2007) attenuation relationships were adopted for hazard computation. The resultant peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps and spectral intensity curves at T = 0.05 to T = 3, for 100, 250, 475, 1000, and 2500 year return periods have been estimated at bedrock level. This study concludes that the seismic provision for the building code of Pakistan needs to be revised and updated.