Reliability Analysis for Liquefaction Risk Assessment for the City of Patna, India using Hybrid Computational Modeling

Abstract

In the present study, the first-order reliability method (FORM) is applied to evaluate the failure of soil deposits during seismic excitation for the city of Patna, India. Patna is emerging as one of the metro cities and the rapid infrastructure development in the city with high pace construction of road and metro services along with several smart city projects have led to immense growth in civil engineering structures. Therefore, liquefaction assessment of Patna is an important subject due to the geographical and seismic location of the city. A detailed comparative study has been performed between first-order second moment (FOSM) and advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) reliability methods to determine the most suitable method to evaluate the potential risk of liquefaction for Patna city. Reliability index (b) values obtained from AFOSM analysis are in true accordance with the deterministic approach and therefore can be considered as an appropriate tool for reliability analysis for this city. The analysis establishes that the city of Patna exhibits high possibilities of liquefaction failure during high-intensity earthquakes i.e. Mw = 6.5. Also, a concept of a predictive computational model developed by the hybridization of ANN and GWO algorithms to determine b value using geotechnical and seismic parameters has been proposed. The high precision and error-free performance of the ANN-GWO model provides a powerful computational tool to assist the prediction of b. The results of the study could be used to comprehend the potential risk against liquefaction and provide a novel and insightful concept of risk assessment for safe and economic construction practices.